Maritime Threats
Oil tankers are increasingly under attack amid Middle East and European conflicts. Iran has intensified strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi forces in Yemen targeted Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Ukraine reports attacks on more than 150 vessels linked to Russia in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.
Market Impact
Brent crude broke 100 USD per barrel for the first time since May, surging over 30% in July as the Red Sea and Hormuz security situation worsens. Shipping through Hormuz has dropped sharply following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran MOU. Houthi and Iranian actions now threaten millions of barrels per day of oil, though alternative routes mitigate a full choke.
Alternative Routes and Logistics
- Saudi oil can be redirected via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and pipelines to the Mediterranean, though logistics are complex.
- Fully loaded supertankers cannot transit the Suez Canal, requiring partial offloading and an extended journey around Africa.
Black Sea Disruptions
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has halted tanker loading at Novorossiysk due to attacks. Kazakhstan exports ~80% of its crude via this pipeline, risking production shut-ins. Ukraine has struck Russian refineries, reducing over 50% of capacity and tightening both crude and refined product markets.
Price Outlook
Experts warn that Brent could surpass previous highs, with a worst-case scenario reaching the 2008 peak of 148 USD per barrel if the region descends into full-scale war.
