Geopolitics Push Gasoline Higher Again
Drivers in Moose Jaw are facing another increase at the pump as renewed geopolitical tensions place fresh pressure on global oil and fuel markets. The latest move has added to the strain on household budgets already dealing with elevated gasoline costs.
GasBuddy Points to Two Main Triggers
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the recent price increase is being driven largely by two factors: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the breakdown of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire around the Strait of Hormuz.
National Average Rises 6.5 Cents
Across Canada, the average fuel price rose 6.5 cents from the previous week, reaching 172.6 cents per litre. De Haan said immediate relief is unlikely while tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved.
Escalation Could Keep Prices Elevated
De Haan warned that further escalation between the United States and Iran could add more upward pressure to gasoline prices. He said oil prices may stay high until the market narrative shifts toward de-escalation.
Fuel Markets React to Political Decisions
According to De Haan, the direction of prices depends heavily on decisions made by both Washington and Tehran. He said gasoline and oil markets will respond to how those choices change the perceived risk to global supply.
Saskatchewan Still Among the Cheapest
Even with the latest increase, Saskatchewan remains one of Canada’s lowest-priced fuel markets. Moose Jaw prices have climbed about 8.5 cents since Wednesday, while the provincial average now sits at 163.5 cents per litre.
Alberta Could Retake the Cheapest Spot
De Haan said Saskatchewan may still see another jump. Alberta is currently close behind at 165 cents per litre, meaning it could soon reclaim the title of cheapest gasoline market in Canada.
Manitoba and Atlantic Prices Show the Gap
Manitoba follows at 166 cents per litre. At the other end of the scale, Newfoundland and Labrador are nearing the 2 dollar per litre mark, with prices currently around 197 cents per litre.
Diesel Prices Also Climb
The pressure is not limited to gasoline. De Haan said diesel prices in Saskatchewan have also increased, with the provincial average rising from about 176 cents per litre on July 8 to roughly 182 cents per litre.
U.S. Prices Remain Lower
De Haan also compared prices with nearby U.S. states. Gasoline was about 3.64 U.S. dollars per gallon in North Dakota, 4.01 dollars in Montana and 3.89 dollars in Minnesota.
Converted Prices Highlight Tax Differences
Converted into Canadian dollars, those prices equal roughly 135 cents per litre in North Dakota, 148 cents per litre in Montana and 144 cents per litre in Minnesota. De Haan said U.S. gasoline prices are usually lower because fuel taxes are lower.
Crude Oil and Gasoline Do Not Always Move Together
West Texas Intermediate crude was trading around 80 U.S. dollars per barrel. De Haan explained that crude oil does not always move in lockstep with gasoline, diesel or jet fuel because those are refined products shaped by additional market forces.
Refining Capacity Adds Another Layer
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have affected available refining capacity, while summer driving demand has increased pressure on fuel supplies. De Haan said those refinery disruptions have created some disconnect between crude oil prices and fuel prices.
Could Saskatchewan Reach $2 Per Litre?
Asked whether Saskatchewan drivers could eventually see gasoline approach 2 dollars per litre, De Haan said there is no clear answer. The outcome depends on whether geopolitical escalation continues and how severe it becomes.
Low Prices Could Change Quickly
For now, Saskatchewan motorists are still paying some of the lowest fuel prices in Canada. But with oil markets being shaped by conflict, refinery disruptions and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, that advantage could narrow quickly.
