Provincial Data Tells A Different Story
Canadian home prices rose in nearly every province in April, despite the broader narrative of a major national housing correction. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows that the national decline has been driven mainly by weakness in just two provinces.
The national composite Home Price Index climbed 0.3% in April to $666,400, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The rise came as all but one provincial market recorded higher prices during the month.
Only New Brunswick Posted A Decline
New Brunswick was the only province where the Home Price Index fell in April, with prices slipping 1.5%, or about $5,000.
Every other provincial HPI moved higher. Newfoundland led the gains with a 1.6% monthly increase, followed by Alberta at 0.9% and Nova Scotia at 0.8%. Prince Edward Island rose 0.5%, Ontario gained 0.43%, Quebec added 0.25%, British Columbia rose 0.08% and Saskatchewan edged up 0.05%.
National Correction Masks Regional Strength
At the national level, the typical home price remains 20.8% below the record high reached in March 2022. That represents a decline of about $174,900 from the peak.
However, the provincial data suggests that many Canadians may not have experienced a meaningful correction at all. In most provinces, prices are either at record highs or only slightly below them.
Four Provinces Sit At Record Highs
Nova Scotia, Quebec, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland are currently at record highs. Prince Edward Island is almost there as well, sitting just 0.1% below its all-time peak.
Alberta is only 2.6% below its record, while New Brunswick is 3.5% below its peak. Across seven of the nine provincial HPIs, the largest correction from record levels is just 3.5%.
Ontario And B.C. Drive The Correction
The national correction is overwhelmingly concentrated in British Columbia and Ontario, two of the country’s most expensive housing markets.
British Columbia’s typical home price is 14.9% below its 2022 peak. Ontario has seen an even larger adjustment, with prices still 25.3% below their record high. Those two markets carry enough weight to pull the national index sharply lower, even while most provinces remain close to peak levels.
Affordability Progress Looks Uneven
The data complicates the idea that housing affordability has improved across Canada. While national prices have fallen substantially from their peak, the decline has not been evenly distributed.
In many provinces, prices remain elevated despite a major shift in fundamentals. Rapid population growth has slowed and the era of near-zero interest rates has ended, yet several markets have continued to hold firm or reach new highs.
Policy Support May Be Offsetting Weakness
The resilience of provincial prices suggests that policy decisions may be offsetting downward pressure from weaker fundamentals. Measures designed to support demand, improve access to credit or stimulate construction can also help keep prices elevated.
For buyers, the result is a fragmented housing market. Ontario and British Columbia have seen meaningful corrections, but much of the country remains expensive by historical standards. The national headline may show a major decline, yet the provincial reality points to a housing market that is still remarkably firm outside Canada’s two most expensive provinces.
